PUBLISHED BY FIGURE DIGITAL ASSETS
The Yield Signal
VOL. 1  ·  SEPTEMBER 2026
From deep analyses to AI-driven investment tools, this month’s volume is the institutional key to weathering a high-inflation environment.
01Market Reads
02The Cost of Standing Still
03Macro is Changing — Can AI Help in a Dynamic Market?
04Webinar: Rethinking Yield in an Inflationary Era
10-YEAR TREASURY
5.28%
+7 BPS
CPI (MoM)
0.4%
+30 BPS
SOFR
3.90%
0 BPS
SOURCES: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY  ·  BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS  ·  NEW YORK FED
DATA AS OF SEPTEMBER 28, 2026
 
THE OUTLOOK
For fifteen years, yield meant taking risks. Cash paid nothing, so you bought equities or reached into credit. That premise ended this month. Tens are at 5.2%, the highest since 2007, the long bond is above 5.5%, and the market has three more hikes priced.
What is driving it is a war. Inflation expectations are rising because the Strait of Hormuz is closed, which means the rates outlook is a ceasefire negotiation. Meanwhile, household equity exposure is at a record 40% of net worth. Both markets are betting on the same growth story. Only one of them pays you 5% while you wait to find out if it's true.
REID SIMON ·  PRESIDENT OF DIGITAL ASSETS AT FIGURE
01Market Reads
02The Cost of Standing Still
When rates rise, capital retreats into cash and short duration; when they fall, it moves back into risk assets.
Most allocators have treated this as a formula, and the formula rests on the assumption that rates follow inflation and growth – but when the government that sets those rates now spends more on interest alone than it does on defense, that assumption may no longer hold.
EXHIBIT 1  ·  ALREADY AT — OR ABOVE — THE WWII PEAK
U.S. FEDERAL DEBT-TO-GDP, THEN AND NOW
WWII PEAK · 106%
123%
 
 
106%
     
101%
 
1946
WWII PEAK
2026
TODAY · DEBT HELD BY PUBLIC
2026
TODAY · GROSS FEDERAL DEBT
SOURCE: CBO · THE BUDGET AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: 2026 TO 2036 (FEB 2026) · NBER (ACALIN & BALL, 2024)
03 Macro is Changing — Can AI Help in a Dynamic Market?
TAYEB KENZARI ·  SENIOR MANAGER, PRODUCT MARKETING AT FIGURE
Macro is changing the way institutions view fiscal policy. The future of cash management may demand agentic trading to unlock continuous, automated reallocation of capital, but this upgrade is far from frictionless. Agentic trading requires agentic infrastructure: financial mechanisms (settlement, state, terms, constraints) that are native to the agent's operating environment.
The question is: which steps can institutions take now to prepare for a future with AI agents?
EXHIBIT 2  ·  LIQUIDITY AND YIELD ACROSS CASH AND FIXED-INCOME PRODUCTS
RELATIVE POSITIONING OF COMMON VENUES FOR IDLE CASH
 YIELD ↑
~10%
HIGHER YIELD · LESS LIQUID
HIGHER YIELD · MORE LIQUID
 
 ● Private credit
 
  
 ● Onchain credit
 
Securitized credit ● 
 
  
 ● Investment-grade bonds
~5% 
 ● Long Treasuries
 
Term deposits ● 
Treasury bills ● 
  
Money-market funds ● 
   
  
Bank sweeps ● 
~0% 
Cash ● 
 
LOWER YIELD · LESS LIQUID
LOWER YIELD · MORE LIQUID
 LIQUIDITY →
NOTE: YIELD PLACEMENT REFLECTS APPROXIMATE MARKET RATES AS OF LATE SEPTEMBER 2026; LIQUIDITY PLACEMENT IS ILLUSTRATIVE. RATES CHANGE DAILY. HIGHER-YIELDING PRODUCTS SUCH AS PRIVATE CREDIT, SECURITIZED CREDIT AND ONCHAIN CREDIT ARE NOT CASH EQUIVALENTS AND CARRY CREDIT, LIQUIDITY, AND STRUCTURAL RISK.
LIVE WEBINAR
Webinar: Rethinking Yield in an Inflationary Era
Market conditions are rapidly shifting, favoring capital preservation as inflation climbs. An individualized yield strategy for yourself or your institution can help you earn from your existing cash reserves without surrendering them.
To learn more about yield and today’s most relevant data, join us and our research partner, Four Pillars, for a live briefing on their research on October 14th, 9AM ET.
Or follow our LinkedIn Digital Assets page for insights between issues.
ABOUT THIS NEWSLETTER
The intention behind the newsletter is to curate and call the most up-to-date news and thought leadership on how to prepare for both the headwinds and tailwinds in the modern day digital era.
Published by Figure Digital Assets, part of Figure Technology Solutions.

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